Israel Matzav: Survey: American support for Israel, support for striking Iran stronger than ever

Survey: American support for Israel, support for striking Iran stronger than ever

A survey released on Monday by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) shows that American support for Israel is stronger than ever and that American support for striking Iran to prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons is increasing.

The full poll is available online at http://www.adl.org/Israel/poll_israel2009/default.asp

Key findings on Israel and the Palestinians

-- 67%, the highest figure in recent years, see Israel as a country to be counted on as a strong, loyal U.S. ally.
-- By a 3-1 ratio, the American people express more sympathy with Israel
than with the Palestinians.
-- 64% of Americans continue to believe that Israel is serious about reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians.
-- Americans see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as difficult to resolve. Of the 26% who believe the prospects for peace have worsened, 51% blame the Palestinians.
-- There is increased support for U.S. involvement in the process --39%, up
from 30% in 2007, but still a significant plurality - 48% -- believe that the sides must solve their own problems with minimal US involvement.
-- Americans are skeptical about "peace dividends" that would result from a
freeze on settlements. 53% believe leaders of the Arab world will continue to refuse to recognize Israel's right to exist, even if Israel stops all further construction settlements; only 25% believe the Palestinians would be prepared to achieve a final resolution of the conflict if Israel stopped further construction of settlements.
-- 61% of Americans believe that the differences between Israelis and Palestinians will drag on for years. Only 29% believe that the two sides "will never have a better opportunity to reach a peace agreement than they do at the present moment."
-- While Americans support the creation of a Palestinian state, 56% believe it must not be established until the Palestinians end the violence and accept Israel's legitimacy.
-- A majority place the onus for peace on Palestinians because of the division between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, and the Arabs, because of their refusal to accept Israel's right to exist as the major obstacle to peace other than Israeli settlements. 51% believe Palestinian division stands in the way of peace.

Key Findings on Iran

-- 63% of Americans now see Iran as an immediate or short-term security threat to the Middle East, up from 50% in 2007.
-- 83% believe that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, up from 71% in 2007
-- 57% support Israeli military action to keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapons program, up from 42% in 2007
-- 54% support U.S. military action to keep Iran from developing a nuclear
weapons program, up from 47% in 2007.

The American people are smarter than their President. A lot smarter.

Israel Matzav: Survey: American support for Israel, support for striking Iran stronger than ever

Israel Matzav: Hanson: 50-50 Israel attacks Iran in the next 6 months

Hanson: 50-50 Israel attacks Iran in the next 6 months

It's getting closer.

Forbes interviews Victor Davis Hanson and former CIA field officer Robert Baer. They agree on five observations regarding Iran. Here are two of them.

The fourth observation: Israel cannot tolerate a nuclear Iran.

"The Israelis have some bunker busters," Baer said. "They could take out some sites underground. They could set the Iranian nuclear program back years." Would the Israelis be willing to accept the risks a military strike would entail? "This is just 65 years after the Holocaust," Hanson said. "My God, we are talking about 6 million people who were executed while the world watched, and now we have a person [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of Iran] who is promising to do it again."

What is the probability that Israel will strike Iran within the next six months?

"Forty-nine percent," said Baer.

"I would say 50-50," Hanson replied.

The final observation: Iran would retaliate.

"Iran's deterrent doctrine is to strike back everywhere it can," Baer explained. "We should expect the worst." Iran would attack American supply lines in Iraq and command Hezbollah to start a civil war in Lebanon. It would fire surface-to-surface missiles at every oil facility within range, wreaking devastation in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states while removing millions of barrels of oil a day from the world markets. The economy of the entire globe would suffer a paroxysm. The Middle East could descend into chaos. The U.S. would experience the worst crisis in decades.

Read the whole thing. We are approaching the Armageddon scenario. Like it or not.

Israel Matzav: Hanson: 50-50 Israel attacks Iran in the next 6 months

Israel Matzav: Kouchner: Either we solve Iran or Israel will

Kouchner: Either we solve Iran or Israel will

As opposed to previous occasions, this time, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner actually seems to get it. In an interview with London's Daily Telegraph that was done in Beirut, Kouchner warns that if the P - 5+1 powers do not stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, Israel will.

"They [the Israelis] will not tolerate an Iranian bomb. We know that, all of us. So that is an additional risk and that is why we must decrease the tension and solve the problem. Hopefully we are going to stop this race to a confrontation," said Mr Kouchner.

"There is the time that Israel will offer us before reacting, because Israel will react as soon as they know clearly that there is a threat."

...

France, Britain and America have pledged to review their policy at the end of this year. If there is no agreement, they will probably urge the UN to impose more economic sanctions on Iran.

But Mr Kouchner made clear his personal scepticism. He fears that tightening the existing sanctions would simply impoverish ordinary Iranians, weaken the opposition and fail to influence the regime.

"Certainly, the upper people in the Iranian government, they will not suffer from sanctions. But the people of the bazaar and the people on the street, the women and the youngsters, they will certainly suffer from that," said Mr Kouchner.

"So this is a problem. It is not a discovery. I have witnessed sanctions all over the world and it's always targeting the poor people more than the rich people."

Kouchner missed something here. At this point, the Iranian people so hate Ahamdinejad that they may be willing to endure sanctions if they have a chance of forcing him out of office.

But he's right about Israel. Israel has far more at stake in stopping Iran than any other country. And if our government sees that the P - 5+1 isn't getting the job done, they are very likely to go on the offensive.

Iran is now due to give its answer on Wednesday to the latest P - 5+1 proposal for sending 80% of Iran's low enriched uranium to Russia and France for enrichment. That proposal may not satisfy Israel anyway, but if it is accepted, the US will probably put enormous pressure on Israel not to strike Iran.

Israel Matzav: Kouchner: Either we solve Iran or Israel will

Israel Matzav: American people will support Israeli military action against Iran

American people will support Israeli military action against Iran

From a Washington Times editorial:

The American people are skeptical that diplomacy or sanctions will stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. An Oct. 6 Pew Research Center poll shows that 63 percent of Americans favor negotiations with Iran, even though 64 percent believe they will be ineffective; 78 percent approve of tougher sanctions, even though 56 percent believe they won't work.

This is America at its most pragmatic. The public is saying that it's worth trying anything to stop Iran, but in the end, we probably will have to fight it out. The survey shows that 61 percent agree that Iran must be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons even if it requires the use of force. Just 24 percent believe we should accept an Iranian bomb if stopping it necessitates military action.

The prospects are slim that President Obama will use force to stop Iran. But the Pew poll is good news for Israel, which at least can count on the support of the American people when it takes the inevitable step. At this point, it's only a matter of time.

Let's be grateful that this is Obama's first term and not his second. At least there is some hope that he might still care what the American people think.

Israel Matzav: American people will support Israeli military action against Iran

Israel Matzav: Report: Israel planning to attack Iran 'after December'

Report: Israel planning to attack Iran 'after December'

In a report quoted on Israel Radio on Thursday morning from the French magazine Le Canard Enchainé, Israel has begun making some rather mundane preparations for an attack on Iran 'after December.'

According to a report in Le canard enchainé quoted by Israel Radio, Jerusalem has already ordered from a French food manufacturer high-quality combat rations for soldiers serving in elite units and also asked reservists of these units staying abroad to return to Israel.

The magazine reports further that in a recent visit to France, IDF Chief of General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi told his French counterpart Jean-Louis Georgelin that Israel is not planning to bomb Iran, but may send elite troops to conduct activities on the ground there.

These, according to the magazine, may involve sabotage to nuclear facilities as well as assassinations of top Iranian nuclear scientists.

According to the Jerusalem Post, Israel has maintained that it has the military capability to tackle Iran on its own if sanctions against the Islamic Republic prove ineffective.

I'll tell you a secret folks. I haven't asked anyone in the IDF, and I'm sure if I did the response would either be 'no comment' or a comment off the record, but I will guarantee you that the IDF already has elite forces on the ground in Iran and probably has at least since June.

Bet on it.

Israel Matzav: Report: Israel planning to attack Iran 'after December'

Israel Matzav: Why Israel is unlikely to attack Iran - for now

Why Israel is unlikely to attack Iran - for now

In a post entitled Why Israel is unlikely to attack Iran, Benjamin Kerstein lays out the case for why Israel will attack Iran - just not now.

What this means in terms of the Iranian issue is that the final decision regarding Israeli military action will be taken by Barak and probably by no one else. Certainly, Netanyahu could order a strike, or veto one, but without Barak’s support, he would be forced into a very uncomfortable position. At worst, he would have to remove his defense minister and replace him, thus also losing the Labor Party’s participation in the government at precisely the moment when political unity would be most necessary. For the same reasons, if Barak were to insist upon a strike, or refraining from one, there would be little room for Netanyahu to refuse, even if he wanted to.

This is significant in regard to the latest revelations about the Qom facility because despite Netanyahu and Leiberman’s urgent statements, Barak’s personality and his previous actions suggest that an Israeli strike is highly unlikely, precisely because of the current sense of political urgency. Barak’s is a legendarily mercurial and mathematical mind. One oft-told anecdote is that his favorite method of relaxation is to dismantle watches and put them back together. With one notable exception (the 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon) he tends not to act rashly or emotionally; and plans his moves meticulously beforehand. Along with this, however, he displays a strong affinity for the unexpected stroke. As in the case of the Syrian strike and several surprise evacuations of illegal Israeli settlements, he tends to strike when it is least expected, and to deliberate avoid those moments when action seems inevitable.

Paradoxically, then, the exhortations of Netanyahu and Leiberman, as well as the dramatic revelations of Obama and other Western governments, indicate that IDF action against Iran is decidedly unlikely at this time. Certainly, they can do no harm, and may help build some political support for the strike that is, I think, inevitable. Given who will actually be giving the order, however, they actually make action less likely at this time. That will only happen when the world is busy chattering about other things.

Well, maybe. I don't expect an attack next week, and I can name a couple of other not-very-meticulously planned moves by Barak (Camp David in 2000, and the rumor that he went to sleep during the Battle of Sultan Yaqub - the worst tank battle in Israel's history, which was under his command - in 1982). I don't expect Netanyahu to order a strike without Barak nor do I expect Barak to demand a strike from Netanyahu and have Netanyahu say no. But I do expect that the strike will happen, and that when it does both Barak and Netanyahu will be behind it.

Israel Matzav: Why Israel is unlikely to attack Iran - for now

Israel Matzav: Medvedev: 'Peres promised that Israel won't attack Iran'; UPDATE: Peres was wrong

Medvedev: 'Peres promised that Israel won't attack Iran'; UPDATE: Peres was wrong

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was the guest on Fareed Zakaria's GPS show on CNN on Sunday. During the interview, Medvedev was asked about Russia's relations with Iran, Iran's nuclear program and the prospects that Iran will attack Israel or that Israel will attack Iran. It all starts at 7:58 below and runs until 14:14 (sorry, they did not break this video apart and I don't know how to do that myself):

Let's go to the videotape.

So Medvedev says that Shimon Peres told him that Israel won't attack Iran. That was the headline here. Just one problem: Peres is a figurehead with no real power.

If Medvedev really believes that Israel won't attack Iran if it feels threatened, he is fooling himself. Shimon Peres is not in charge here. Barack Obama isn't in charge either.

UPDATE 5:19 PM

Fox News reports that Peres was wrong.

"Israel has the right to defend itself and all options are on the table," Israel Lieutenant-General Gabi Askenazi said during a rare interview on Army Radio.

The army chief's statement comes after Medvedev said on Sunday that Israeli President Shimon Peres assured him it would not attack Iran.

Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon was asked by Reuters on Monday if the comment by Peres, as reported by Medvedev, was a guarantee there would be no Israeli strike on Iran.

"It is certainly not a guarantee," Ayalon said. "I don't think that, with all due respect, the Russian president is authorised to speak for Israel and certainly we have not taken any option off the table."

Heh.

Israel Matzav: Medvedev: 'Peres promised that Israel won't attack Iran'; UPDATE: Peres was wrong

Israel Matzav: Time's up on Iran

Time's up on Iran

Caroline Glick's weekly JPost column reviews much of the material I have published on this blog in the last 2-3 weeks (the Uzi Rubin piece she discusses is here). But the bottom line is that time's up for negotiating with Iran and time's up for sanctions. Like John Bolton, Glick has concluded that Israel has no choice but to strike. Here's why:

ALL IN all, the totality of Iran's moves make clear that it is not interested in using its nuclear program as a bargaining chip to gain all manner of goodies from the West. It is planning to use its nuclear program as a means of becoming a nuclear power. And it wishes to become a nuclear power because it wishes to wage war against its enemies.

And all in all, the totality of the UN-led international community's responses to Teheran's moves make clear that the world will take no effective action to prevent Iran from gaining the capacity to wage nuclear war. The world today will again do nothing to prevent the genocide of Jewry.

And that's the thing of it. So long as the mullahs continue to signal that the Jews are their first target, the world will be content to allow them to build their nuclear weapons and to use them. As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's contention that the US will retaliate against Iran if it launches a nuclear attack against Israel makes clear, Washington will only consider acting against Teheran after the US moves to the top of Teheran's target list.

The question then is whether Israel has the ability to effectively attack Iran even if the US opposes such a strike. Based on open source material, the answer to this central question is yes, Israel can launch an effective strike against Iran.

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Israel Matzav: Time's up on Iran

Israel Matzav: Bolton: 'Israel will attack Iran by the end of 2009

Bolton: 'Israel will attack Iran by the end of 2009

Former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton tells Russian Times, Russia's English-language television station, that Israel will attack Iran before 2009 to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

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Israel Matzav: Bolton: 'Israel will attack Iran by the end of 2009

Israel Matzav: A green light?

A green light?

The big headline in Israel on Monday is Vice President Joe Biden's statement that Israel is a sovereign country and that it can do whatever it sees fit to protect itself from Iran's nuclear threat. While ordinarily I might have viewed that as a yellow light ('we won't stop you' - as if this administration is capable of stopping anyone from doing anything), Israel Radio went so far as to claim that the Obama administration has lost patience with Iran and is giving Israel a green light. While there is ample ground for everyone to give up on sanctions and do what needs to be done in Iran, I don't believe the Obama administration has given up on 'engagement.' But it's also not willing to do anything to stop Israel from attacking Iran. In fact, given this administration's weakness, and the overwhelming feeling everywhere outside of Washington (and Caracas and Damascus) that something must be done, I'm not sure the Obama administration could stop Israel from attacking even if it wanted to stop it.

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Israel Matzav: A green light?

Israel Matzav: Saudis to let Israel flyover to attack Iran?

Saudis to let Israel flyover to attack Iran?

Before we start this story, let me inform you that one of its authors is Uzi Mahnaimi, who has been known to exaggerate in the past.

The Sunday Times of London is reporting that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has told Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that it will look the other way if the IAF overflies its country on a mission to remove Iran's nuclear capability. Traversing Saudi Arabia would considerably shorten the route to Iran.

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Israel Matzav: Saudis to let Israel flyover to attack Iran?

Israel Matzav: Bolton: Time for Israel to go after Iran

Bolton: Time for Israel to go after Iran

In Thursday's Washington Post, former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton says that the 'already compelling logic' for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear program is now 'inexorable' in light of the option of regime change having apparently been lost, at least for the time being (Hat Tip: Memeorandum). Bolton argues that the Obama administration will never go for a military option, and that it is preparing the groundwork for a 'plan B' that will leave Iran with at least the capability of ramping up quickly to nuclear weapons.

Only those most theologically committed to negotiation still believe Iran will fully renounce its nuclear program. Unfortunately, the Obama administration has a "Plan B," which would allow Iran to have a "peaceful" civil nuclear power program while publicly "renouncing" the objective of nuclear weapons. Obama would define such an outcome as "success," even though in reality it would hardly be different from what Iran is doing and saying now. A "peaceful" uranium enrichment program, "peaceful" reactors such as Bushehr and "peaceful" heavy-water projects like that under construction at Arak leave Iran with an enormous breakout capability to produce nuclear weapons in very short order. And anyone who believes the Revolutionary Guard Corps will abandon its weaponization and ballistic missile programs probably believes that there was no fraud in Iran's June 12 election. See "huge credibility gap," supra.

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Israel Matzav: Bolton: Time for Israel to go after Iran

Israel Matzav: Oh my: IAF preparing F-15's for use against Iran

Oh my: IAF preparing F-15's for use against Iran

The Israel Air Force is upgrading its F-15 and F-15I (the latter being an F-15 designed specifically for Israel) fighter jets for use in long-distance operations. That likely means for Iran.

According to IDF journal BaMachaneh, the F-15I model is currently being fitted with two new systems – one called “Barad Pelada” (“Steel Hail”), and another named Lightning.
The Barad Pelada advanced weapons system has been operational in the IAF’s F-16s for almost four years, but had to be modified in order to fit the F-15.

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Israel Matzav: Oh my: IAF preparing F-15's for use against Iran

Israel Matzav: Bolton: 'Maybe the fallout from an Israeli attack on Iran wouldn't be so bad after all'

Bolton: 'Maybe the fallout from an Israeli attack on Iran wouldn't be so bad after all'

Former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton looks at the likely fallout of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and concludes that Israel's military option is 'unattractive' but failing to act would be 'even worse' (Hat Tip: Hot Air and Memeorandum). Significantly, if Bolton is correct, most of the Iranian response to an Israeli attack would be absorbed by Israel and not by the United States or other western countries. The retaliation would likely come from Hamas and Hezbullah, while Iran's own military response would be less significant. Here are some of the highlights.

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Israel Matzav: Bolton: 'Maybe the fallout from an Israeli attack on Iran wouldn't be so bad after all'

Israel Matzav: Clinton warns Ahmadinejad: 'Watch out for the crazy Jews'

Clinton warns Ahmadinejad: 'Watch out for the crazy Jews'

Appearing on ABC's This Week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Israel may strike pre-emptively against Iran's nuclear facilities should Israel feel threatened. She also warned of 'massive retaliation' should Iran attack Israel, supposedly the repetition of a position she advocated as a Presidential candidate last year. But if you watch what she says, you'll see that what she's actually threatening is an Israeli retaliation and not an American one.

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Israel Matzav: Clinton warns Ahmadinejad: 'Watch out for the crazy Jews'

Israel Matzav: Lautenberg: US expects Israel to hit Iran if all else fails

Lautenberg: US expects Israel to hit Iran if all else fails

US Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) implied to the Jerusalem Post on Wednesday that the US expects Israel to attack Iran's nuclear facilities if all else fails.

Interviewed during a short visit, Lautenberg - a consistent backer of Israel who is also a Democratic Party supporter of Obama - said, "Israel didn't ask us permission to drop bombs twice on Syrian nuclear facilities. I didn't hear America scolding Israel for what it did then. Hypothetically, if Israel were able to get rid of Iran's nuclear bomb-making capability, I'm sure that America would not send Israel a chastising e-mail message. We have to give Israel the courtesy of [allowing it to] make its own decisions."

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Israel Matzav: Lautenberg: US expects Israel to hit Iran if all else fails

Israel Matzav: Israel ignoring Obama?

Israel ignoring Obama?

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may have agreed to coordinate Israel's actions on Iran with the United States, but in the meantime the IAF is going ahead with business as usual. They're planning for war.

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Israel Matzav: Israel ignoring Obama?

Israel Matzav: Survey: Most Americans believe Israel justified in pre-emptive attack on Iran

Survey: Most Americans believe Israel justified in pre-emptive attack on Iran

A survey of 600 likely American voters shows that vast majorities believe that a nuclear Iran would be a serious threat to the United States and to Israel. This includes a large majority of those who say that they voted for Barack Hussein Obama for President in 2008. A large majority also believes that a nuclear Iran will attack Israel, and a majority believes that Israel would be justified in launching a pre-emptive attack [pdf link] against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

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Israel Matzav: Survey: Most Americans believe Israel justified in pre-emptive attack on Iran

Israel Matzav: Krauthammer on whether Israel will attack Iran to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons

Krauthammer on whether Israel will attack Iran to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons

Here's Charles Krauthammer's take on whether Israel will attack Iran to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons.

I think everybody understands that any Israeli government, even the previous, the more dovish, if you like, Ehud Olmert, the government in Israel, would have attacked if nothing is done by the end of this year.

It's not about the new prime minister. It's about Israel itself. No government will tolerate a nuke in the hands of Iran.

The only question is, does Israel have the capacity to actually destroy this nuclear capacity on the part of Iran enough to set it back about half a decade? If it doesn't, then it would be a futile and dangerous act.

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Israel Matzav: Krauthammer on whether Israel will attack Iran to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons

Israel Matzav: Krauthammer on whether Israel will attack Iran to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons#links#links#links

Krauthammer on whether Israel will attack Iran to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons

Here's Charles Krauthammer's take on whether Israel will attack Iran to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons.

I think everybody understands that any Israeli government, even the previous, the more dovish, if you like, Ehud Olmert, the government in Israel, would have attacked if nothing is done by the end of this year.

It's not about the new prime minister. It's about Israel itself. No government will tolerate a nuke in the hands of Iran.

The only question is, does Israel have the capacity to actually destroy this nuclear capacity on the part of Iran enough to set it back about half a decade? If it doesn't, then it would be a futile and dangerous act.

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Israel Matzav: Krauthammer on whether Israel will attack Iran to prevent it from getting nuclear weapons