Love of the Land: If You Shoot at a King You Must Kill Him

If You Shoot at a King You Must Kill Him

Michael J. Totten
Commentary Magazine
12 April '10

Last week I spoke with Reza Kahlili, a man who during the 1980s and 1990s worked for the CIA under the code name "Wally" inside the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. He wrote a terrific book about his experience as an American agent called A Time to Betray, and today he's issuing a serious warning about his former Iranian masters: they mean what they say, and the West had better start taking them seriously.

He thinks President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei fully intend to use nuclear weapons if they acquire them, either by exploding them in enemy cities or holding the Middle East and the world's energy resources hostage. It's hard, to be sure, for even a well-placed expert to know this for certain. Perhaps not even the leadership knows exactly what it will do with the bomb once it gets the chance. (Either way, a nuclear-armed Iran won't suddenly play well with others.) What happens in the region over the next couple of years may depend in large part on whether the Israelis are willing to chance it.

We should not, Kahlili says, expect Iran's people to applaud an Israeli attack on the weapons facilities. "People in Iran do not sympathize with Israel the way they sympathize with the U.S.," he told me. "They're looking for help, right? But they're not looking for the same kind of help from Israel. So if Israel bombs the facilities in Iran, don't expect people to come out into the streets to celebrate or confront the government forces. That's not going to happen. They're just going to sit at home and pray this thing doesn't get out of hand."

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Love of the Land: If You Shoot at a King You Must Kill Him

Love of the Land: Iran’s Private Army Digs in for a Wider Lebanon War

Iran’s Private Army Digs in for a Wider Lebanon War

Michael J. Totten
Contentions/Commentary
26 January '10

“There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root.” — Henry David Thoreau

The Obama administration needs to start paying attention to Lebanon again before it explodes.

The Washington Post reported over the weekend that Hezbollah is moving long-range rockets and missiles away from the Israeli border and even north of Beirut in a move that would make a Third Lebanon War much more destructive over a much larger area than the Second Lebanon War in 2006. The previous conflict was mostly, but not exclusively, confined to the Hezbollah-controlled Shia areas in the south and in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Israel Defense Forces Brigadier General Aviv Kochavi says Hezbollah is now capable of firing rockets all the way to Tel Aviv from as far north as Beirut. Depending on where Hezbollah is placing its arsenal, taking out launch sites from the air might endanger America’s allies and Hezbollah’s enemies in the Christian, Sunni, and Druze parts of the country.

IDF Major General Giora Eiland says if a third war does in fact start, “Israel will not contain that war against Hezbollah. We cannot.” The last Lebanon war didn’t end well, and as Dwight Eisenhower once said, “If a problem cannot be solved, enlarge it.” The problem, though, must be enlarged in just the right way and to just the right size.

“The only way to deter the other side and prevent the next round,” Eiland continued, “or if it happens, to win — is to have a military confrontation with the state of Lebanon.”

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Love of the Land: Iran’s Private Army Digs in for a Wider Lebanon War

Love of the Land: Who will blink first?

Who will blink first?

Azar Azadi
Opinion/Jpost
25 January '10

During the Cold War serious protocols were set to protect the Americans and Soviets in case of a first strike and even more vigorous protocols were in place regarding how to respond to it. Unlike conventional weapons, nuclear weapons are countervalue weapons, which do not distinguish between civilian and military targets - they will destroy all.

There has been a great deal of discussion on the prevention and deterrence of a nuclear strike on Israel by Iran. Most assume the missile would originate from Iran. But with US airpower in Iraq and Afghanistan, multitudes of Awacs and electronics in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, and with NATO ships with sophisticated electronics positioned in the Persian Gulf, it is doubtful that missiles could make their way from Iran to Israel. However, missiles could easily be launched from locations much closer to Israel. There is so much instability in the region that it would be easy for a rogue nation to entice one or more proxies to act on its behalf.

While Iranian plans for nuclear self-sufficiency were born in the early 1970s and are the focus of a great deal of national pride, achieving nuclear capability during President Ahmadinejad's tenure is said to be a mandate of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). With the IRGC's significant influence and control over the Iranian economy, security, public policy and military, the goal will undoubtedly be reached.

We cannot ignore the potential uses for this nuclear capability once it is developed. Perhaps one of the few things that could shift Iranian public opinion regarding weaponization of nuclear power, and cascade the current public opposition to the regime, would be a large-scale accident in one of IRGC's many nuclear facilities. This is a significant risk as the IRGC is rushing to get there and may be cutting corners in the process.

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Love of the Land: Who will blink first?

Love of the Land: The Italian job: How one of Israel’s closest friends in Europe is helping arm Iran

The Italian job: How one of Israel’s closest friends in Europe is helping arm Iran

Robin Shepherd
Robin Shepherd Online
15 January '10

A depressing and extraordinary piece of writing in today’s Wall Street Journal details how Italy has for years been involved in developing a trade and technology relationship with Iran, including contracts with the Revolutionary Guard and other organs of the Iranian regime which could aid its nuclear weapons programme.

The author, Giulio Meotti, illustrates his broader theme with a quotation from the website of the Italian-Iranian Chamber of Commerce which says: “Iran and Italy were rivals and two great powerhouses in ancient times, but in the contemporary world they are great partners.”

Such flagrant disregard for the implications of this relationship is echoed by both senior politicians and leading companies and is especially worrying because Italy is widely seen as a strong supporter of Israel, a country which the Iranian regime aims to destroy.

As a sign of how problematic the relationship is likely to be, the author quotes Foreign Minister Franco Frattini making the extraordinary assertion that the West should “avoid those [sanctions against Iran] that are connected with Iranian national pride.”

He also explains the context of such remarks as follows:

“Despite international sanctions against Iran, Italian exports to the Islamic Republic rose almost 17% in 2008 to €2.17 billion, according to the Italian statistical office. During that same year, overall trade also rose almost 17% to €7 billion, representing more than a quarter of the European Union’s total trade with Iran. For the past three years, Italy has been Iran’s No. 1 European trading partner.”

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Love of the Land: The Italian job: How one of Israel’s closest friends in Europe is helping arm Iran