Israel Matzav: Will Israel strike Iran? Will the US try to stop them?

Will Israel strike Iran? Will the US try to stop them?

Imagine the scenario. A cluster of Israeli F-15I fighter jets takes off from Israel's Palmachim air base. It quickly crosses Israel, makes its way across the Jordan River and within 20 minutes or so reaches the Iraqi border. As the squadron crosses into Iraq, it is met by American F-16 fighters, which demand that the Israeli jets turn back. The Israelis refuse. There's a dogfight. Could it happen?

Although no one is saying for sure, it apparently could happen. Let me explain why.

In the near term, at least, the United States has ruled out any military action against Iran.

The US has ruled out a military strike against Iran's nuclear program any time soon, hoping instead negotiations and United Nations sanctions will prevent the Middle East nation from developing nuclear weapons, a top US defense department official said Wednesday.

"Military force is an option of last resort," Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Michele Flournoy said during a press briefing in Singapore. "It's off the table in the near term."

...

"Right now the focus is a combination of engagement and pressure in the form of sanctions," Flournoy said. "We have not seen Iran engage productively in response."

Israel is considering going it alone (Original article here - Hat Tip: Memeorandum).

The Israeli security establishment is divided over whether it needs Washington's blessing if Israel decides to attack Iran, Israeli officials say, as the U.S. campaign for sanctions drags on and Tehran steadily develops greater nuclear capability.

Some senior Israeli officials say in interviews with the Wall Street Journal that they see signs Washington may be willing to live with a nuclear-armed Iran, an eventuality that Israel says it won't accept.

Israel says it supports the U.S.-led push for new economic sanctions against Iran. But Israeli officials have increasingly voiced frustration over the slow pace of diplomatic efforts to get sanctions in place.

Former senior members of Israel's defense establishment have weighed in recently on both sides of the debate.

The two precedents cited - Iraq and Syria - are a mixed bag. In Iraq, Israel did not notify the Reagan administration before striking. At the time, Israel did not have particularly warm relations with the Reagan administration (either before or after the strike). In Syria, Israel did notify the Bush (43) administration before striking. At that point Ehud Olmert had a close relationship with George W. Bush. On that basis, I would have to say that there is almost no chance Israel would notify the US in advance that it intends to strike Iran.

Read the whole thing.

Here's where it gets dicey: Could the dogfight happen? The US won't say (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).

In a town hall on the campus of the University of West Virginia, a young airman asked Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen to respond to a “rumor.” If Israel decided to attack Iran, the speculation went, those jet would need to fly through Iraqi airspace to reach their targets. That airspace is considered a “no-fly” zone by the American military. So might U.S. troops shoot down the Israeli jets, the airmen asked the chairman, if they breached that airspace?

Mullen tried to sidestep the question. “We have an exceptionally strong relationship with Israel. I’ve spent a lot of time with my counterpart in Israel. So we also have a very clear understanding of where we are. And beyond that, I just wouldn’t get into the speculation of what might happen and who might do what. I don’t think it serves a purpose, frankly,” he said. “I am hopeful that this will be resolved in a way where we never have to answer a question like that.”

The airmen followed-up: “Would an airmen like me ever be ordered to fire on an Israeli – aircraft or personnel?”

Mullen’s second answer was much the same as his first. “Again, I wouldn’t move out into the future very far from here. They’re an extraordinarily close ally, have been for a long time, and will be in the future,” the admiral said.

Does this represent a shift in American policy towards Israel? Some signal that the U.S. would stop an Israeli first strike at the final moment? Probably not. I’d guess this is Mullen trying not to wade further into treacherous waters. But it was interesting to hear America’s top military officer decline to knock down the idea that U.S. troops might fire on America’s closest ally in the Middle East.

I don't believe the US would shoot down Israeli planes on their way to bomb Iran. I believe that even President Obama understands that he would never live down the image of stopping an embattled Jewish state from striking the ultimate blow against Islamist terror. He would never live down the image of defending Iran against Israel. And neither would anyone who supported such a strike. This isn't Iraq in 1991. The consequences of an Iranian nuclear weapon are much more stark than a bunch of Iraqi scud launchers on a desert floor. But Jennifer Rubin is right:

It’s a bit mind-boggling that the answer wouldn’t be “no,” or at least “we’d never reach that point.” Something better than leaving the suggestion hanging that Zbigniew Brzezinski’s advice about shooting down Israeli planes might be in the cards. It’s fascinating, really: the administration goes to great pains to rule out military force against Iran but thinks it’s important to leave strategic ambiguity with respect to our ally Israel. Only in this administration could we reach such a dismal point.

Indeed.

Israel Matzav: Will Israel strike Iran? Will the US try to stop them?