Israel Matzav: What would the aftermath of a strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities look like?

What would the aftermath of a strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities look like?

This is without question the most interesting piece I have read in a LONG time, and I urge you all to read it.

It's a write-up of a simulation of the aftermath of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. It was done by the Saban Center at the (Left-leaning) Brookings Institute.

The surprises start from the very beginning because it wasn't supposed to be the aftermath of an Israeli attack. It was supposed to be the lead up. The Control group decided to change the scenario at the last minute and tell the three groups (US, Israel and Iran) that Israel had just carried out an attack and destroyed (best case scenario) Iran's nuclear capability. And that's the first lesson: The US team said that they would have stopped an Israeli strike even at the last minute if they could have stopped it. If Israel is going to attack Iran, it cannot tell the US in advance. Everyone agreed that the surprise scenario was much better than Israel telling the US it was going to attack, meeting a US refusal and then attacking anyway.

The US then behaved the way it did during the first Gulf war. During the first Gulf war, the first Bush administration forced Israel to sit on the side and absorb one missile after another from Iraq. In this simulation, eight days after the initial strike, the US had just given Israel permission to retaliate against Hezbullah (which was also firing missiles), but not against Iran. The US also continued to attempt to 'engage' Iran, but Iran wasn't interested. 'Engagement' brought no positive results.

Because the US kept pushing for 'engagement,' Iran kept pushing the US to the limit to see where that limit was. Eventually, Iran crossed a red line by bombing a Saudi oil facility in Dharan and mining the Straits of Hormuz. Another lesson (that Obama will undoubtedly ignore): Don't keep acting like a wimp in front of Iran - it will only encourage them further.

The Iranian team admitted that its actions were much more aggressive because its nuclear facilities were completely destroyed. It figured it had nothing to lose. I'd like to see Iran's nuclear facilities completely destroyed and for them to feel that they still have something to lose. The only way that will happen (and this is not in the simulation) is for Israel to ignore the US red light after it destroys Iran's nuclear facilities and go after Iran's infrastructure and the regime's leadership. Let's hope it happens.

There's much more. Read the whole thing. By the way, it's a pdf link but it's only six pages. It's worth it.

Israel Matzav: What would the aftermath of a strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities look like?