Israel Matzav: Netanyahu and the Dalai Lama

Netanyahu and the Dalai Lama

Prime Minister Netanyahu is meeting with President Obama at 5:30 pm Israel time (11:30 am Washington time). In what is seen as a sign that Obama is still angry at Netanyahu, the Prime Minister will once again have to enter through the White House's rear entrance and no photographers will be present. The only other leader to be treated similarly by Obama was the Dalai Lama.

Politico claims that Netanyahu will be facing a smug Obama at the White House (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).

Obama’s health care victory may prove a decisive pivot point in the way he is viewed both domestically and abroad and in how powerful a negotiator he is perceived to be by foreign leaders. And nowhere is that true more than in Israel, a place obsessed with American politics.

“Every time I met with an Arab diplomat or anyone from the Middle East, including Israelis, they would invariably ask me, ‘How’s health care going?’” said former Rep. Robert Wexler (D-Fla.), who retired in December to become president of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace. “And the first couple [of] times, I didn’t really realize what they were actually asking. They were asking, ‘How strong is the president of the United States?’”

Netanyahu’s aides have recently confided that they see Obama as a weak leader whose tenure they can weather, but that calculus may now have to change. After his health care victory, says Wexler, “the president is now a much stronger president, and that will play out in a variety of ways in the Middle East, and also in his direct relations with the leaders in the region, especially Prime Minister Netanyahu.”

...

“Definitely Bibi’s inner circle ... their strategy has almost literally ... been to wait out Obama,” said one Washington Middle East hand who asked for anonymity. Even as recently as last month, Netanyahu’s advisers were saying, ‘We just need to wait him out.’ They [thought] he is a one-term president and that he’s weak.”

Asked about those reports, Wexler said he wasn’t “certain that was [Netanyahu’s] strategy. But if it was, I think that strategy today is dead.”

Administration officials indicated an empowered Obama would not press any new demands on the parties. “Neither our commitment nor our goal has changed,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference the morning after Obama’s health care victory. “The United States will continue to encourage all parties to take steps that advance the prospects for peace.”

...

One former congressional Democratic staffer said the health care victory’s impact may not be so much on the Mideast peace process but on Obama himself, who saw the rewards of tenacity.

“When Netanyahu meets Obama in the White House Tuesday, he will meet a smiling Obama, who has aged a bit over health care but who has been vindicated,” the former staffer continued. “What people learned about Obama, and what Obama learned about the process [himself], is you have got to keep pushing.”

That realization is likely to affect how the Obama administration deals with other challenges both domestic and foreign, he said, including how hard to push for the two-state solution amid both resistance and cynicism from Middle Eastern leaders.

“The day after a potentially transformative president shepherds his signature health care legislation through Congress, the troublesome Israelis show up in town,” said veteran Middle East peace negotiator Aaron David Miller.

“The storm is coming as differences between the U.S. and Israel on settlements and the negotiations loom large. The real question is: Does Obama have the smarts and the b---- to be both reassuring and tough when the time comes to push both Israelis and Palestinians to an agreement?”

Miller said he doesn’t know the answer.

I don't see this having a long-term effect on the 'peace process.' While Obama's poll numbers may enjoy a positive bounce over the next few days, they will be reversed by the taxes that will be needed to pay for Obamacare and the shellacking the Democrats are likely to take in November. Sure, Obama saw that he could get what he wants, but it comes at a tremendous price. What price is he willing to pay for a 'Palestinian state'? A lot more than Bibi Netanyahu is willing to pay. And Bibi's poll numbers are still better than Obama's.

Can Obama be waited out? The question is almost irrelevant. You wait someone out in the hope of getting someone better in the next go-round. But we have no clue whom that someone might be, and in any event, I don't believe Netanyahu is capable of giving Obama or the 'Palestinians' anywhere near what they want.

Aaron David Miller is likely right that there will be a storm between Israel and Obama, but I don't see him blowing Bibi over. The Dalai Lama stuck to his guns. Bibi will stick to his.

Israel Matzav: Netanyahu and the Dalai Lama