Israel Matzav: US backing off the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran

US backing off the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran

Three months ago, I reported that the United States was considering rewriting the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which wrongly concluded that Iran had stopped developing a nuclear weapon in 2003, and effectively took the military option out of the hands of then-President George W. Bush. Now, Newsweek reports that the 'rewrite' may happen as soon as next month.

The officials, who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive information, say the revised report will bring U.S. intel agencies more in line with other countries' spy agencies (such as Britain's MI6, Germany's BND, and Israel's Mossad), which have maintained that Iran has been pursuing a nuclear weapon.

Well, sort of in line. You see, the intelligence agencies have to save face, and therefore they cannot admit how totally wrong they were in 2007. They certainly won't admit that they purposely put out misinformation to keep President Bush from acting, so they won't really admit Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon.

Yet two of the U.S. sources caution the new assessment will likely be "Talmudic" in its parsing. They say U.S. analysts now believe that Iran may well have resumed "research" on nuclear weapons--theoretical work on how to design and construct a bomb--but that Tehran is not engaged in "development"--actually trying to build a weapon. "The intelligence community is always reluctant to make a total retreat because it makes them look bad," says the third American.

Yes, especially if they didn't screw up, and they purposely mischaracterized Iran's intentions to take a military option out of President Bush's hands, which is what I believe happened.

But the rewrite may not happen at the end of the day. These spooks tend to change their minds at the last minute.

Read the whole thing.

More from Glenn Reynolds here.

Israel Matzav: US backing off the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran