Israel Matzav: US plans to restart Israel-PA 'negotiations' based on '49 armistice line?

US plans to restart Israel-PA 'negotiations' based on '49 armistice line?

Haaretz is reporting that the United States plans to restart 'negotiations' between Israel and the 'Palestinian Authority' based upon the 1949 armistice lines. According to the report, Israel would also agree to freeze construction in 'east' Jerusalem, but that freeze would not be announced, allowing Israel to 'save face.' De facto, the Netanyahu government has not issued any building permits in 'east' Jerusalem since it took power anyway. The report is based upon an interview with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit in the pan-Arabic daily Asharq al-Awsat.

The United States and Egypt, along with France, are planning a joint move to restart Israeli-Palestinian talks on the basis of the June 4, 1967, borders, territorial exchanges and a complete freeze of construction beyond the Green Line, including East Jerusalem. The freeze would not be announced publicly.

Egypt's foreign minister, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, said in an extensive interview with the Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat that "once they realized their earlier approach had failed, the Americans see themselves forced to change direction."

He added that Egypt had recently discussed with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas the new strategies for negotiations raised in talks between Cairo, Washington and Paris. An Egyptian source told Haaretz that Egypt's intelligence minister, Omar Suleiman, is scheduled to visit Israel and then Washington in the coming days.

At a press conference in Beirut last week, Abbas said he expects U.S. envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, to arrive in Jerusalem and Ramallah during the first week of January. He said Mitchell will be pushing an initiative to renew negotiations, in coordination with the Arab League and on the basis of a complete freeze of settlement construction for five months - without a public statement to that effect.

Such an initiative would allow Abbas to hold general elections in the territories in June 2010. The Egyptian foreign minister said the new program would set up the basic principles of the negotiations, the intended results and a clear timetable. He added that an agreement would have to include the following points: Establishing a Palestinian state on all territories occupied in 1967, with a possibility for small-scale territorial exchanges; establishing East Jerusalem as a Palestinian capital; a just arrangement for all refugee issues; agreed security arrangements; normalization between the Arab world and Israel; and no construction in settlements until the negotiations are complete.

Guess who hasn't been consulted. Haaretz notes that Netanyahu and Abu Bluff cannot even agree on what starting negotiations means. Netanyahu wants to start them from the beginning and not be bound by 'understandings' reached by the previous government, while Abu Bluff wants to resume 'negotiations' where they left off, i.e. with everything already conceded by a desperate Ehud Olmert.

Moreover, this story has not been confirmed by the US or by Israel. That leads me to believe that it's a lot of wishful thinking on the Egyptians' part.

Finally, if the 'Palestinians' do hold elections in June (what's the magic about June?), what will happen if Hamas wins? What could go wrong?

Israel Matzav: US plans to restart Israel-PA 'negotiations' based on '49 armistice line?