Israel Matzav: The next war in Lebanon

The next war in Lebanon

On Tuesday night, I posted video from the IDF of Monday night's weapons explosion (picture) in a village next to Tyre. But where did those weapons come from and how did they get into that house in the first place? Haaretz explains.

The senior IDF source said that weapons are now being smuggled from Syria into Lebanon on a regular, weekly basis. "Iran pays, Syria smuggles and Hezbollah receives," he explained.

According to the officer Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets, many of which are kept in about 300 storage facilities spread throughout the 160 or so Shi'ite villages in southern Lebanon.

"Syria feels quite comfortable," the army source said. "There is no international pressure [on Damascus] to break off its ties with Iran or the 'axis of evil.' It pays no price for its role in the smuggling."

The officer added that the IDF has taken notice of increasing concern among the UNIFIL peacekeepers when they enter Shi'ite villages to search for weapons. "In places where they still try to carry out searches, there is such intense friction with Hezbollah that the UN people usually opt to give up," the senior IDF source said.

Isn't that just great? And it was even predictable three years ago.

Like Hamas in the south, Hezbullah uses the local population as human shields and their homes as weapons storage facilities. That's why that explosion took place in a home.

The video you're about to see is from the Second Lebanon War in July 2006. It's an IAF video and it shows Hezbullah firing rockets from within residential areas. It also shows rocket launchers driving off into garages that are located alongside people's houses. There are thousands of these throughout southern Lebanon today - many more than existed in 2006. UNIFIL has been predictably unwilling and unable to stop them.

As you watch this video, I'd like you to think about something in light of the events of the last month or so: What will Goldstone say? When there is another war in Lebanon and when Israel has no choice but to risk 'civilian' casualties by hitting those homes with rocket launchers, there's also going to be another Goldstone Commission that will 'investigate.' I take those points as a given. What will Goldstone say? I'll tell you after the videotape.

Let's go to the videotape.

What do you think Goldstone will say? My guess is that - if Goldstone looks at all at evidence that Hezbullah was shooting rockets from those homes - he'll say that they were done shooting and that therefore there was no more justification for coming after them. And when Israel itself orders the IDF not to shoot at firebombers, we're just encouraging Goldstone and his fellow travelers to believe that kind of standard is sustainable.

What could go wrong?

Israel Matzav: The next war in Lebanon