Israel Matzav: Claim: Support for Israel really does matter for American Jews

Claim: Support for Israel really does matter for American Jews

An interesting experiment:

Support for Israel is a critical element of Jews’ voting behavior. An experiment we embedded in a survey for the National Jewish Democratic Council provides the most telling evidence. For half of the sample we pitted a Republican candidate "Jones" who had a "strong pro-Israel record" and a variety of typical Republican issue positions against a Democratic opponent "Smith," who also had a “strong pro-Israel record” along with typical Democratic positions on the same issues. The other half of the sample was given identical portraits of “Jones” and "Smith" except that, for the second group, the Democrat lacked the pro-Israel record.

Comparing the vote in the two halves of the sample reveals the substantial difference support for Israel makes to Jewish voters.

The pro-Israel Democrat won by a 45-point margin, while the Democrat who was identical, except on Israel, eked out only a three-point win. Support for Israel alone created a massive 42-point swing in the margin, clear evidence of the centrality of Israel to Jewish voters.

Exactly what constitutes a “pro-Israel” candidate is uncertain, but the new American Jewish Committee poll hints at some indicia. Ninety-four percent of Jews believe the Palestinians must recognize Israel as a Jewish state; two-thirds would endorse Israeli military action to prevent Iran from going nuclear; nearly six in 10 oppose a compromise that left Jerusalem divided or outside Israeli sovereignty. While 60 percent would dismantle at least some Israeli settlements in exchange for peace, only 8 percent would dismantle them all. As J Street’s poll makes clear, 75 percent supported Israel’s military action in Gaza, while almost the entire community supports an active role for the U.S. in pursuing peace.

So how did Obama win? Here's what pollster Mark Mellman claims:

With 76 percent labeling the president pro-Israel, Democrats appeal to Jews’ economic and cultural instincts, as well as to their pro-Israel commitments.

Well, then there's a huge gap between American Jews and their Israeli brethren, 96% of whom claim Obama is not pro-Israel. That's a huge gap and it's not just explained by someone being fooled.

I believe American Jews vote differently on the President than they do on Congress. They need a lot more evidence to vote against a Democratic candidate for President. Since Obama voted 'present' so much - and since much of the case against him was based on his associations, which the media did its best to hide - that record wasn't there.

If Obama is the Democratic candidate in 2012, I'd look for him to get a lot less than 78% of the Jewish vote. Unless he bombs Iran....

Israel Matzav: Claim: Support for Israel really does matter for American Jews