Egypt Warns: U.S. Policy Won’t Work
By Barry Rubin
If as close a U.S. ally as Egypt openly—not just privately but publicly—totally contradicts President Barack Obama, what does it say about U.S. credibility in the Middle East.
First, the background.
Credibility and deterrence are two basic foreign policy concepts missing from discussions among U.S. policymakers nowadays, perhaps replaced by popularity. The fact is that credibility and deterrence are sinking is far more dangerous than that Obama’s personal popularity may have risen.
Here’s a quick test:
You’re an Arab leader. Iran, Syria, and radical Islamist groups menace your country and regime. Do you feel secure in expecting Obama to help and protect you?
If you answered “yes” then obviously you are not an Arab leader.
As you know, Obama has said that he has Arab regimes on board to make gestures toward Israel in exchange for a freeze on construction in existing Jewish settlements on the West Bank. This is nonsense, and when the president of the United States speaks demonstrable nonsense—which everyone in the region knows—this is not a good thing for him being taken seriously.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit says that while a complete construction freeze—and whatever the United States and Israel agree on will be deemed insufficient—might make Arab states more inclined toward normalization it won't bring any actual steps in that direction:
"Certain countries will be prepared to move closer to Israel if it takes significant steps for the good of the Palestinians, and will demonstrate seriousness and willingness for serious contacts….[But] A settlement freeze in the West Bank is not of equal value to normalization, and will not bring this about alone."
Well, sure. Thirty years ago Egypt and Israel signed a full peace treaty, Israel returned the entire Sinai Peninsula and even today the two countries don’t really have normal relations.
Yet here are the two big Middle East policy initiatives the president will announce in the coming month:
If as close a U.S. ally as Egypt openly—not just privately but publicly—totally contradicts President Barack Obama, what does it say about U.S. credibility in the Middle East.
First, the background.
Credibility and deterrence are two basic foreign policy concepts missing from discussions among U.S. policymakers nowadays, perhaps replaced by popularity. The fact is that credibility and deterrence are sinking is far more dangerous than that Obama’s personal popularity may have risen.
Here’s a quick test:
You’re an Arab leader. Iran, Syria, and radical Islamist groups menace your country and regime. Do you feel secure in expecting Obama to help and protect you?
If you answered “yes” then obviously you are not an Arab leader.
As you know, Obama has said that he has Arab regimes on board to make gestures toward Israel in exchange for a freeze on construction in existing Jewish settlements on the West Bank. This is nonsense, and when the president of the United States speaks demonstrable nonsense—which everyone in the region knows—this is not a good thing for him being taken seriously.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit says that while a complete construction freeze—and whatever the United States and Israel agree on will be deemed insufficient—might make Arab states more inclined toward normalization it won't bring any actual steps in that direction:
"Certain countries will be prepared to move closer to Israel if it takes significant steps for the good of the Palestinians, and will demonstrate seriousness and willingness for serious contacts….[But] A settlement freeze in the West Bank is not of equal value to normalization, and will not bring this about alone."
Well, sure. Thirty years ago Egypt and Israel signed a full peace treaty, Israel returned the entire Sinai Peninsula and even today the two countries don’t really have normal relations.
Yet here are the two big Middle East policy initiatives the president will announce in the coming month:
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RubinReports: Egypt Warns: U.S. Policy Won’t Work
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