Israel Matzav: Like a fleeting shadow?

Like a fleeting shadow?

The Kadima party founded by Ariel Sharon is about to implode. At least six MK's have signed a deal to leave the party to join the Likud. Israel Radio reported this morning that seven have signed but the Likud did not want to announce it because there are supposed to be 12 and they want to wait until all are aboard.

MKs Eli Aflalo, Ronit Tirosh, Shai Hermesh, Otniel Schneller, Aryeh Bibi and Yulia Shamalov Berkovich reportedly signed the forms, while MK Ze'ev Boim and other Kadima legislators were expected to join the move soon.

Netanyahu and his associates have negotiated with 15 Kadima MKs about leaving Kadima over the past three months and they hope to persuade 10, but just seven are needed in order to legally split off from the party.

Netanyahu's associates said they had not decided yet when to turn the forms over to the Knesset House Committee to proceed with the split, adding that a lot depended on the final decisions of the remaining MKs and the progress in negotiations to bring home kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Schalit.

Kadima is a party with no principles and deserves to go out of existence. But that doesn't mean that any of the MK's who are leaving it are doing so on principle.

Aflalo already told Kadima leader Tzipi Livni on Tuesday that he intended to leave the party on his own, because he was angry at her for not helping him get re-elected to the Knesset after he was instrumental in helping her win the Kadima leadership against MK Shaul Mofaz.

"You betrayed me and I don't believe in you anymore," Aflalo told Livni, in the heated conversation.

Each of the MKs who leave Kadima will become a minister, deputy minister or Knesset committee chairman. Aflalo is expected to be named Negev and Galilee development minister, Tirosh will be a minister in the Foreign Ministry, Boim could be minister of Jerusalem and pensioners affairs, Shamalov Berkovich deputy communications minister, Bibi deputy internal security minister, Hermesh deputy agriculture minister, and Schneller chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

Kadima MK Yoel Hasson wrote Attorney-General Menahem Mazuz on Wednesday asking him whether such promises were legally considered bribery.

It's tough being in the opposition in this country, isn't it?

I'm not celebrating this too much. From Netanyahu's perspective, this is a brilliant move that changes the entire coalition picture. If he was ever talking to National Union, he has no reason to anymore. The Jewish Home can walk away and Netanyahu can shrug his shoulders. The same goes for United Torah Judaism Even Shas may not be absolutely necessary anymore so long as one of the other parties stays in. What this does is strengthen Netanyahu for making 'concessions' to the 'Palestinians.' And that's not good news.

Moreover, although historically MK's who defect from big parties and then return to them don't do particularly well (Dan Meridor is the only recent exception that comes to mind and that's because Netanyahu took a personal interest in him and because Meridor spent some time out of politics), this will likely make it harder for the likes of Moshe Feiglin to move up in the next election, and of course Netanyahu wants to keep Feiglin down.

Will Kadima continue to exist? Here's betting that by the end of the next election, they will be but a footnote in the country's political history.

Israel Matzav: Like a fleeting shadow?